Dalvin Cook, who was released Friday by the Minnesota Vikings, is a 27-year-old running back who is coming off his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season. He was set to enter the fourth year of the five-year, $63 million deal he signed in 2020. Cook’s cap number for 2023 was about $14.1 million, the third-largest number among NFL running backs. And he is still productive and capable of hitting home runs. He had four touches that went for more than 40 yards last season.
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For a team loading up for a deep playoff run, it might have made sense to keep Cook despite his salary. But at this point in the offseason, they didn’t have the cap space to make much in the way of impactful additions.
Although Minnesota went 13-4 last season, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who has a background in analytics, might be looking at its 11 wins in one-score games last season as a sign the Vikings may regress in 2023. Cutting Cook doesn’t mean they are waving the white flag, but they could be looking to invest their resources in building a foundation for the long term rather than pushing too many chips in and betting on this current iteration of the team.
Cook is still relatively young and productive, but if you look past the typical stats, he is declining in several advanced metrics. Adofo-Mensah understands that Cook’s future production isn’t likely to correspond to his contract numbers and that his expected replacement, Alexander Mattison, can get close to his level of production at a much cheaper price.
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Watching the film, Cook still has excellent vision, a sharp jump cut and the ability to make defenders miss in tight spaces. When he gets into the open field, he has the burst to finish long runs. However, coach Kevin O’Connell’s scheme and the Vikings’ strong run blocking were big factors in Cook’s production.
Came back @KirkCousins8 @dalvincook
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— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) December 17, 2022
Microchip data also suggests that though Cook still has juice, he slowed down significantly last season. Below, we’ll examine percentile scores from Telemetry Sports that were derived from Next Gen Stats’ microchip data.
Rushing yards over expected
Next Gen Stats defines expected yards as the rushing yards that a ball carrier is expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders. These factors are measured by microchip data. The total of rushing yards over expected (RYOE) is how many actual yards a runner gets over what is expected.
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According to Telemetry, Cook ranked 55th out of 69 eligible NFL runners in this metric last season. In 2021, he ranked 42nd out of 77, and in 2020, he ranked eighth out of 82.
Rushing explosiveness
Rushing explosiveness is a percentile score that measures a player’s explosive runs. Telemetry defines an explosive run as a run in which the actual yards gained are at least 10 yards more than the expected yards gained. Last season, Cook ranked 41st out of 69 runners in this metric.
How does this make sense given Cook’s number of memorable big plays? Though he did have several very long runs, he only had 19 rushes of 12 yards or more last season (14th in the league). His rushing explosiveness score suggests that he left a lot of yards on the field.
In 2021, he ranked fourth out of 77 in this stat, and in 2020, he ranked 27th out of 82.
Rushing elusiveness
Rushing elusiveness is a percentile score that measures a runner’s ability to evade tacklers. The factors included are yards after contact and tackles avoided.
Last season, Cook ranked 28th out of 70 runners in this metric. Though he ranked in the top half of eligible runners, 28th is a far cry from elite. In 2021, he ranked 34th out of 78, and in 2020, he ranked eighth out of 82.
On film, he does showcase the ability to make the first tackler miss in small spaces, and his nagging shoulder injury was likely a factor in his struggle to break tackles and create more yards after contact. He’ll probably rank more favorably in this metric if he can stay healthy next season.
Play speed
Play speed is a percentile score that factors in linear speed, acceleration and change of direction. Cook ranked 30th out of 64 eligible runners in this metric last season. In 2021, he ranked 28th out of 73, but in 2020, he ranked 12th out of 69.
Though Cook hasn’t missed significant time due to injuries in the last four years — he has played an average of 14.5 games per season — he has had some lingering issues. In 2021, he hurt his ankle and then reinjured it later in the season. He also has dislocated his shoulder two seasons in a row. He didn’t miss any games last season because of it, but there must be some concern that the injuries are starting to pile up and zap his athleticism.
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Last season, he seemed to get worn down as games progressed. Throughout his career, Cook typically has been very effective in the fourth quarter, but last season, his production dipped. In the first three quarters, he averaged 4.6 yards per rush and 37 percent of his rushes were deemed successful. In the fourth quarter, though, his yards per carry dropped to 3.9 and only 21.4 percent of his runs were successful.
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What’s next?
Though Cook could well be an effective runner for at least another season or two, Adofo-Mensah probably saw the decline and preferred to cut bait a little too early rather than too late — especially considering the money Cook would have been paid in the coming years. Teams around the league likely view him in a similar light and didn’t want to take on Cook’s contract via trade.
Now, Cook will likely get a one- or two-year deal from a team that already has a lead back and wants to win now. A team like the Broncos makes sense. Javonte Williams is promising, but he’ll be coming back from a major knee injury. Having Cook as an insurance policy in case he’s not quite ready — or to split carries — would be ideal for a Sean Payton offense that will lean on the ground game.
The Cowboys were one of the most run-heavy teams in the league last season and might run even more with Mike McCarthy calling plays. After cutting Ezekiel Elliott, the Cowboys could use another established runner to pair with Tony Pollard, who has never been a workhorse back in the NFL before.
With the Dolphins, Cook could return to his home state and play in an outside zone scheme that is a perfect fit for his skill set. He would also have Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson to split carries with, which could help him stay fresh.
(Photo: Stephen Maturen / Getty Images)
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